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Three months on from a general election that marked a major shift in Irish politics, talks are finally getting under way to create a new three-way coalition. Ken Murray reports from Dublin.

It’s been a long time coming but bit by bit, they appear to be getting there. Formal talks on the creation of a new government get under way in Dublin on 7 May and the Greens, with 12 TDs, are centre stage. The party, which is on the crest of a ‘climate change’ wave, has made it clear that if Fianna Fáil led by Micheál Martin and Leo Varadkar’s (phictiúr) Fine Gael want Green Party support, they will have to get their way on certain environmental matters which could adversely affect Irish agriculture and that in itself has caused tensions amongst its membership.

Eager Green Leader Eamon Ryan who previously served in Government between 2007 and 2011, told RTE Radio last week, “there has to be a government before mid-June. "That has to be discussed with other parties but it will not take a matter of days to do, it will take a short number of weeks.” Already there is division within the Greens with deputy Party leader Catherine Martin making it clear she was opposed to entering talks unless there were written guarantees that certain measures can be introduced to ensure that Irish carbon emissions can be reduced by seven per cent annually and that promises on certain social issues will be met.

Dúirt sí leis Scrúdaitheoir Gaeilge newspaper in recent days that there were "a number of loopholes, lacunas and ambiguities in replies to the Greens 17 questions [put] to the two bigger parties.” She has since been convinced to change her thinking. Just to get this far, a number of developments have emerged from Election 2020 that have rocked the domestic political landscape. In a parliament that houses 160 seats requiring an 80-seat majority, the figures after the February 8th Election threw up a few hitherto unexpected scenarios.

Fianna Fáil secured 38 seats, one of which went to the Speaker of the House, Fine Gael won 35 and the surprise in the pack, taking 37 seats, was Sinn Féin. The left-wing all-Ireland Party which was formed in 1905 to end British rule in Ireland, is viewed as toxic by those in the centre and to the right in Irish politics. It was once known as the political wing of terrorist group the IRA and has been successfully targeting working class young people who were born after the historic British-Irish Peace Agreement in 1998!

With a minimum of 80 seats required to secure a majority, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, who have bitterly opposed each other in The Dáil since the 1930’s, were left with no option after two months of talks but to do the unthinkable, form a coalition or else hold another election resulting in one that Sinn Féin would likely come out on top! A rotating Taoiseach plan is being discussed with Martin in the job for 12 months followed by Varadkar taking charge for the subsequent year and so on until 2025.

The government formation talks are likely to be the last throw of the dice for Fianna Fáil Leader Micheál Martin who, at 59, has led his party in the 2011, 2016 and 2020 elections but has yet to become Taoiseach. With some of his regional councillors expressing total opposition to doing business with the ‘old enemy’ Fine Gael, the Fianna Fáil leader has had to eat his words to move a step closer towards the top job. Speaking to reporters in Dublin in January during the election campaign, Micheál Martin completely ruled out doing business with Fine Gael.

Aiseolas

“People want change, that’s the message we’re receiving, they want Fine Gael out of office and we’ve made it very clear we want to go into government with other centre parties, clearly Labour and the Greens are the ones we’d be interested going into government with, but that’s to be determined by the people,” he said.

Should the Greens not get what they want and walk away in the coming weeks, a second general election, subject to COVID-19 disappearing off the radar, is inevitable and the unthinkable could emerge with Sinn Fein taking overall control and moving the Republic of Ireland completely to the left! It’s all to play for.

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